Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedcd…2507 other 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$837 · open −$766
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate31%57W / 127L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$8,548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$138
14 days−$275
30 days−$804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$35
politics 15% −$523
crypto 13% +$164
world 9% −$227
sports 3% +$269
weather 1% −$73
tech 0% −$16
finance 0% −$39
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -30.1% -36.8% 9% 9% -28.6%
≤30d 90 -54.3% -58.6% 7% 6% -17.6%
≤90d 116 -34.8% -41.0% 22% 16% -11.4%
all 184 -22.2% -29.6% 31% 20% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -8.9%
10% -36.3% 16% -17.6%
15% -42.5% 14% -25.6%
20% -48.1% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$14 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$8,548
Realized+$837
Unrealized−$766
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses57 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions14
Markets (closed)184 / 198
History coverage198d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 93¢ 86¢ $6,079 $5,609 −$470 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,090 +$91 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $830 −$171 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $824 $667 −$158 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 62¢ 84¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 65¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 63¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $187 −$43 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $201 −$8 -4%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 −$67 -66%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$5 -32%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -39%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$15 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$5 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$6 -26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$6 -11%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $182 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$3 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $65 −$11 -17%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $6 −$4 -65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $17 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $394 −$2 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $70 −$2 -4%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 10 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 10 $63 −$11 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$8 -16%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,213 +$32 +1%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 29 $10 −$5 -45%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 29 $10 −$5 -53%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 86¢ $12 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $12 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $144 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $104 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $329 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $150 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $133 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $98 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $377 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $388 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $783 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $73 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,548.49 · official $8,548.49 (match) · 756 history records