Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xedcc…41a1 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$485 (-9%) realized −$930 · open +$445
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$504
14 days−$525
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$100
other 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.8% -18.4% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 9 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 44% -20.2%
≤90d 9 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 44% -20.2%
all 9 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 44% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -20.2%
10% -25.6% 44% -27.9%
15% -32.8% 44% -34.8%
20% -39.4% 22% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$414 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,170
Realized−$930
Unrealized+$445
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ 90¢ $560 $985 +$425 (+76%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $164 $184 +$20 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $353 −$348 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $214 +$92 +43%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $398 −$392 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1,325 −$1,305 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $544 +$938 +172%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $318 +$181 +57%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $694 +$333 +48%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $617 −$21 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 50¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 45¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE $4 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $353 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 49¢ $117 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 49¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 48¢ $193 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 40¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 36¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 36¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 44¢ $258 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 42¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 42¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 70¢ $163 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 69¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 50¢ $341 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 49¢ $6 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $166 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,169.75 · official $1,169.75 (match) · 53 history records