Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedcc…4d5e sports 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,140 (+31%) realized +$5,181 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%94W / 366L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$785
7 days+$1,084
14 days+$1,518
30 days+$2,993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,276
finance 30% +$2,565
world 6% +$10
crypto 5% −$215
sports 5% −$150
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.5% -3.6% 35% 31% +54.0%
≤30d 175 -38.3% -44.2% 17% 15% +40.8%
≤90d 460 -16.7% -24.6% 20% 18% +19.9%
all 460 -16.7% -24.6% 20% 18% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 18% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 17% +8.4%
15% -38.4% 14% -2.0%
20% -44.5% 12% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$12 · ×6.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$5,181
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses94 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)460 / 463
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Down 22¢ 18¢ $192 $157 −$35 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 13¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 110,000 and 120,000 voters? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $257 +$821 +319%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $59 −$37 -63%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -73%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $228 +$305 +134%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $227 +$27 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $1 −$1 -57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$171 +550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -52%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $252 −$251 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$4 +11%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $176 +$145 +82%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $154 −$82 -53%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$22 -86%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $12 +$5 +45%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $148 +$21 +14%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs FULL SENSE (+2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -75%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$6 -27%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dragon Ranger Gaming (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-9.5) vs TYLOO (+9.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$5 +6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$2 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$200 +278%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $384 +$368 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -96%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs Monte (+6.5) Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs One Coin (+1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -70%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$2 -29%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Titan Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -69%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-9.5) vs Monte (+9.5) Jun 06 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $4 $0 +10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -97%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 22¢ $198 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $7 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $16 2h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 48¢ $260 16h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 31¢ $17 17h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 30¢ $122 18h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 29¢ $28 20h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 26¢ $5 20h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down $7 20h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down $2 20h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 20¢ $160 21h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 23¢ $6 21h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $0 21h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $1 22h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up $62 22h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 17¢ $2 22h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 12¢ $169 23h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 16¢ $3 23h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down $13 25h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $58 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr BUY One Coin $0 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr SELL One Coin $1 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr BUY One Coin $1 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr BUY One Coin $0 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr BUY One Coin $0 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr BUY One Coin $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.97 · official $162.97 (match) · 3500 history records