Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedcb…54b1 sports 501 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$319 (-2%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate32%162W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$254
14 days+$102
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$143
crypto 40% −$807
sports 17% +$270
world 1% −$29
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 19% -12.8%
≤30d 168 -11.6% -20.0% 27% 15% -12.6%
≤90d 418 -13.2% -21.5% 29% 18% -15.5%
all 503 -10.0% -18.6% 32% 19% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 19% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 14% -23.4%
15% -33.5% 9% -30.8%
20% -40.0% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses162 / 341
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 501
History coverage123d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $666 +$77 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $762 −$79 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $305 +$100 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $306 −$20 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 −$8 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 −$21 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$15 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -61%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 -18%
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 −$2 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -33%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 −$6 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$7 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 −$16 -8%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 −$6 -13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$19 -19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$5 -4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$24 -15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 −$54 -18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $308 −$15 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,400 −$58 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $401 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$29 -29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$13 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$7 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$3 -10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $26 −$13 -51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$89 +174%
Rayan Elloumi: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $25 −$2 -9%
Justin Kluivert: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -7%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $38 −$37 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $221 39m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $257 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $127 51m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $55 51m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $109 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $160 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $306 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $177 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $176 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 34¢ $123 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $117 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $76 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $94 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $100 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 2627 history records