Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedc5…7c1e weather 108 markets active 9h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-12%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate76%82W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$24
other 28% −$2
weather 22% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 66 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 66 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -11.6%
all 108 -13.0% -21.3% 76% 16% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 16% -21.0%
10% -28.8% 13% -28.5%
15% -35.7% 11% -35.4%
20% -42.0% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses82 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $21 9h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $23 9h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 9h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $22 9h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $23 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records