Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xedc3…66ac other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$29
politics 16% −$5
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$61
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 9% -9.4%
all 99 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -16.6% 9% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 9% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage93d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $55 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $361 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $346 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,105 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $276 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $297 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $279 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $311 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $307 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $312 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $298 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $316 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $308 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $295 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $512 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $120 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $61 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $61 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $55 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $130 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $57 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $57 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.95 (match) · 317 history records