Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedc3…f923 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,573 (+50%) realized +$8,627 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$911per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$8,110
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +47.1% +33.1% 67% 67% +34.1%
≤30d 18 +47.1% +33.1% 67% 67% +34.1%
≤90d 18 +47.1% +33.1% 67% 67% +34.1%
all 18 +47.1% +33.1% 67% 67% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.1% 67% +34.1%
10% ← realistic here +20.4% 67% +21.2%
15% +8.8% 67% +9.5%
20% -1.9% 56% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$745) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +68% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$850 vs −$347 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$8,627
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$911
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner So:sweet 38¢ 34¢ $456 $402 −$54 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $284 −$280 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw? Jun 26 $241 +$999 +414%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $886 +$1,050 +119%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,440 +$1,012 +70%
Tunisia to win the second half? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $242 −$242 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 25 $91 +$122 +134%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $10,093 +$4,720 +47%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $27 +$20 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $745 +$1,134 +152%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $301 +$304 +101%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $484 +$369 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $317 +$296 +93%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $137 +$169 +124%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 38¢ $153 1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 38¢ $156 1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 38¢ $156 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $284 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $886 6h
Tunisia to win the second half? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $241 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1,440 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $31 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 57¢ $27 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $1,394 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $1,428 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $1,714 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $973 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $1,786 18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $976 19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $1,791 19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh BUY UNO MILLE 42¢ $91 22h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY MIBR Academy 29¢ $85 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 38¢ $150 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 38¢ $146 23h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY MIBR Academy 31¢ $78 23h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY MIBR Academy 31¢ $78 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 38¢ $150 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 38¢ $147 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 43¢ $152 25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1,275 27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $157 28h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $484 41h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $317 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.00 · official $402.00 (match) · 54 history records