Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xedc0…99f3
tech · 282 markets active 87d ago
0.0score
+$58,865 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59,670 · open −$805
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$282
Realized+$59,670
Unrealized−$805
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses117 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)311 / 282
Avg bet$732
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 5 History 311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,015
7 days−$8,015
14 days−$8,015
30 days−$8,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $860 $210 −$650 (-76%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $67 $56 −$11 (-16%)
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will "Nvidia" be said on the next episode of the All-In Podcast? No 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Sundar Pichai be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
@nubcat unsuspended from X by August 31? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1,909 $0 −$1,909 (-100%)
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls? No 11¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? No 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? No 12¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -93%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
@nubcat unsuspended from X by August 31? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump disparage Vladimir Putin on Friday? Jun 12 $12 −$26 -216%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31? Jun 12 $772 −$928 -120%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Jun 12 $2,846 −$2,843 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Jun 12 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Trump visit China before September? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30? Jun 12 $605 −$779 -129%
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31? Jun 12 $89 −$111 -125%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Melania Trump sue Hunter Biden by August 31? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? Jun 12 $101 −$110 -108%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? Jun 12 $395 −$395 -100%
Will Kai Cenat donate to MrBeast's Team Water by August 22? Jun 12 $19 −$30 -159%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? Jun 12 $106 +$551 +519%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Jun 12 $93 +$138 +148%
Will Trump attend UFC 319? Jun 12 $2,082 −$2,349 -113%
Fact Check: Is the suspect transgender? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October Jun 12 $127 −$127 -100%
Polish strike on Russia by September 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15? Jun 12 $28 −$23 -82%
Will Trump call Putin “strong” on Friday? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
@nubcat unsuspended from X by Friday? Jun 12 $135 −$140 -104%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 16 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 +$4 +257%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Ma Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 05 $254 −$6 -2%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Mar 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Mar 03 $1,332 −$902 -68%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 02 $41 +$175 +426%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $500 +$269 +54%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $2,000 +$2,994 +150%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1,000 +$5,855 +586%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,500 +$552 +37%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $800 +$4,914 +614%
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Feb 28 $1,667 +$13 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 +$1,433 +143%
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Feb 21 $134 +$61 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 38% +$44,629
other 31% +$3,617
politics 12% +$1,386
world 10% +$16,739
sports 7% +$339
finance 1% −$1,315
economics 0% +$1,501
crypto 0% +$20
culture 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL No 76¢ $136 87d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY Yes 10¢ $41 88d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 56¢ $100 88d
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $9 97d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? SELL Yes 25¢ $249 99d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? BUY Yes 27¢ $135 99d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $117 99d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 99d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $15 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $7 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $1 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $83 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $26 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $22 100d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY No 43¢ $29 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $63 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $368 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 100d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -71.2% -73.9% 6% 6% -90.0%
≤30d 34 -71.2% -73.9% 6% 6% -90.0%
≤90d 37 -60.2% -64.0% 11% 11% -88.7%
all 311 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 28% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 28% +20.5%
10% -14.7% 24% +9.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.9% 20% -1.6%
20% -30.5% 16% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.74 · official $281.74 (match) · 3500 history records