Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedc0…0615 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-28%) realized −$35 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$31
sports 16% +$1
world 14% +$1
crypto 4% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -64.7% -68.0% 33% 0% -87.2%
≤30d 5 -36.1% -42.2% 60% 20% -58.5%
≤90d 8 -18.2% -26.0% 75% 25% -52.2%
all 15 -20.7% -28.3% 67% 27% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 27% -44.9%
10% -35.2% 13% -50.1%
15% -41.4% 7% -55.0%
20% -47.2% 0% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)15 / 22
History coverage117d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+65%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+545%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+455%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+281%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+173%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Villarreal finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $3 +$1 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $2 $0 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $4 +$2 +47%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 24 $5 −$2 -36%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $4 +$1 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 7m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 27h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.24 · official $32.24 (match) · 68 history records