Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedc0…f72a crypto 107 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%73W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -10.0% -18.5% 66% 51% -14.7%
≤30d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 68% 51% -10.3%
≤90d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 68% 51% -10.3%
all 107 -3.1% -12.3% 68% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 51% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 35% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 24% -26.7%
20% -35.4% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses73 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records