Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedbd…dd60 weather 1212 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (697 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,185 (+5%) realized +$1,374 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%79W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day697.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$240
other 1% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (697 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 +59.2% +44.1% 19% 18% -56.5%
≤30d 426 +59.2% +44.1% 19% 18% -56.5%
≤90d 426 +59.2% +44.1% 19% 18% -56.5%
all 426 +59.2% +44.1% 19% 18% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover697.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.1% 18% -56.5%
10% ← realistic here +30.3% 18% -60.7%
15% +17.7% 17% -64.5%
20% +6.2% 17% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late +216% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,374
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses79 / 347
Open positions85
Markets (closed)426 / 1212
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day697.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+455%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 415 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on May 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on April 21? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on May 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 +$12 +833%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C or below on April 27 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on April 23? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on April 24 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +329%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 67°F or below on June 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on April 23? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1463%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C or below on April 24? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 27? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 5? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 24? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on May 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $8 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $7 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.15 · official $6.15 (match) · 3500 history records