Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xedbc…6824 other 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-26%) realized −$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$73
sports 32% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.2% -17.0% 42% 42% -39.2%
≤30d 13 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 38% -39.0%
≤90d 13 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 38% -39.0%
all 13 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 38% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -39.0%
10% -24.1% 38% -44.9%
15% -31.4% 31% -50.2%
20% -38.1% 23% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +259%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$19 +132%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$11 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$21 +137%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 37¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $4 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $14 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 94¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.20 · official $27.09 (match) · 42 history records