Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xedbb…f53c crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,366 (-8%) realized −$1,335 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 40L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$396
7 days−$396
14 days−$450
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,071
other 17% −$516
crypto 15% −$2,094
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 36 +9.3% -1.1% 36% 36% -7.8%
≤90d 55 +2.4% -7.3% 27% 27% -15.7%
all 55 +2.4% -7.3% 27% 27% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 27% -15.7%
10% -16.2% 27% -23.7%
15% -24.3% 27% -31.1%
20% -31.7% 27% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$585 vs −$257 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$1,335
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage61d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 07 $2,539 −$2,500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,030 −$1,226 -60%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $503 +$296 +59%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $103 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $51 −$31 -60%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $154 +$796 +518%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,231 +$2,467 +200%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $237 +$242 +102%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $318 −$312 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $608 +$1,002 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $204 +$401 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $395 −$386 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $712 −$712 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,066 −$1,045 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 May 29 $228 +$259 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $306 +$527 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $803 +$777 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $497 −$488 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $303 +$300 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $52 +$72 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $298 +$744 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 24 $115 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $11 +$51 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 17 $11 +$130 +1220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $357 −$344 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $68 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $137 26h
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $2,539 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 13¢ $23 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $509 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 11¢ $103 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $127 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 13¢ $0 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 11¢ $738 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 10¢ $103 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $103 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $154 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $909 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $799 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $419 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $39 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $45 11d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 12d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Rebeka Masarova 4¢ $21 12d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 10¢ $51 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski SELL Alexander Donski 95¢ $115 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski SELL Alexander Donski 95¢ $20 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski SELL Alexander Donski 95¢ $751 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski SELL Alexander Donski 95¢ $5 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski SELL Alexander Donski 95¢ $60 12d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski BUY Alexander Donski 15¢ $154 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $3,699 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.75 · official $168.75 (match) · 128 history records