Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xedb8…7ff9 politics 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 38% −$12
sports 6% +$10
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -1.9% -11.3% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 124 -2.9% -12.2% 7% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 6% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×11.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage116d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $245 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $633 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $530 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $266 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $419 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 5h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $22 17h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $22 37h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 46h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $23 15d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $244 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $244 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.99 · official $36.99 (match) · 343 history records