trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 100% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 36% | 9% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 36% | 9% | -9.8% |
| all | 29 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 52% | 14% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.1% | 14% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -13.2% | 10% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -21.6% | 7% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -29.3% | 3% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 31 | $29 | −$1 | -4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $3 | −$1 | -24% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 29 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 29 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 28 | $1 | +$1 | +47% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 10 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 21 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +28% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | Apr 22 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | Apr 20 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 07 | $12 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 by March? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 11 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Stonehill vs. Wagner | Mar 03 | $6 | +$6 | +100% |