Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedb2…3637 other 24 markets active 7d ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$181 (-18%) realized −$56 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$65
other 37% −$125
world 18% +$3
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +48.9% +34.7% 100% 100% +34.7%
≤30d 5 -25.3% -32.4% 60% 40% -33.2%
≤90d 5 -25.3% -32.4% 60% 40% -33.2%
all 5 -25.3% -32.4% 60% 40% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 40% -33.2%
10% -38.9% 20% -39.6%
15% -44.8% 20% -45.4%
20% -50.2% 0% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$53 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)5 / 24
History coverage42d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $73 $74 +$2 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $73 $51 −$22 (-30%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $45 +$12 (+38%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-45%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $4 −$28 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $75 +$36 +49%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 02 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +8%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $15 6d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 6d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $111 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $15 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 14d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 97¢ $15 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $15 14d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 35¢ $58 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 92¢ $3 26d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY No $5 33d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $23 37d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $618.38 · official $618.51 (match) · 93 history records