Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xeda9…d0a2 crypto 552 markets active 7h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$275 (+17%) realized +$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%277W / 275L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$43
14 days−$5
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% +5.4%
≤30d 448 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 46% +6.3%
≤90d 552 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 46% +4.7%
all 552 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 46% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% +4.7%
10% -24.8% 40% -5.3%
15% -32.1% 39% -14.5%
20% -38.7% 37% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses277 / 275
Open positions0
Markets (closed)552 / 552
History coverage76d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 552 Trades
no open positions (246 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$14 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$19 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$35 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 984 history records