Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xeda8…6ca8 crypto 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$176 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%209W / 166L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$507
14 days+$709
30 days+$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$330
crypto 35% −$318
finance 5% −$46
sports 4% −$191
other 4% −$57
politics 2% +$442
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 32% +2.0%
≤30d 36 +2.1% -7.6% 47% 39% +3.0%
≤90d 329 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 33% -6.7%
all 375 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 32% -6.8%
10% -23.6% 24% -15.7%
15% -31.0% 15% -23.9%
20% -37.7% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses209 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)375 / 384
History coverage110d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $160 +$58 +36%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$70 -70%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $498 −$86 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$12 -22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $110 +$11 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$27 -54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $200 −$33 -16%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +149%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $16 +$11 +66%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 +$93 +138%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $472 −$28 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $150 −$44 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $250 −$57 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $150 −$35 -23%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $333 +$484 +145%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,107 +$286 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $322 +$201 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $72 +$16 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $265 +$13 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 −$2 -6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $139 −$19 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $59 −$11 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $52 +$7 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $41 +$11 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $522 +$121 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $430 −$46 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $170 +$44 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $621 −$556 -90%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $105 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $57 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $58 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $70 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 9¢ $10 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $98 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $120 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $121 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 47¢ $190 21h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 50¢ $193 21h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 49¢ $88 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $52 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $133 21h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 49¢ $100 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.90 · official $93.90 · 1167 history records