Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeda8…5c91 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
sports 27% −$11
other 26% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 12% -8.4%
≤30d 30 -1.6% -10.9% 30% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 38 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 8% -9.3%
all 40 -1.8% -11.2% 35% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 8% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage490d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $8 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $81 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $75 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $49 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $8 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $34 +$1 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $242 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $241 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $241 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $242 $0 -0%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Oral Roberts vs. Denver Mar 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $33 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $43 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $15 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $23 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $0.00 · 179 history records