Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xeda6…2095 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized −$5 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$706per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 40% -10.0%
≤30d 15 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 40% -10.0%
≤90d 15 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 40% -10.0%
all 15 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 40% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 40% -10.0%
10% -16.4% 20% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 7% -26.5%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$271 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$706
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $297 $396 +$99 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $211 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $467 +$90 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 28 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $355 +$282 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $253 +$62 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $59 −$57 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,074 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,552 −$1,021 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1,292 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2,262 +$40 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,030 +$209 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,418 +$307 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $699 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $157 27m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $63 45m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $42 46m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 54m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 58m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 59m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $211 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $81 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $198 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $278 1h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $61 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $116 2h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.91 · official $396.14 (match) · 279 history records