Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

ED 0xeda3…923e crypto 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$62 (+18%) realized +$62 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip

Net edge+50%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)+63.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+20.8%	+9.3%	46%	46%	-9.3%
≤30d	20	+80.2%	+63.1%	45%	45%	+0.6%
≤90d	20	+80.2%	+63.1%	45%	45%	+0.6%
all	20	+80.2%	+63.1%	45%	45%	+0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+63.1%	45%	+0.6%
10%	+47.5%	45%	-9.0%
15%	+33.2%	35%	-17.8%
20%	+20.2%	35%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +80% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +196% → late -35% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$62

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage3d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 11	$52	−$14	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 11	$15	−$7	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 11	$26	+$8	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 11	$22	−$22	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 10	$7	+$8	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET	Jun 10	$30	−$5	-18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 10	$27	+$14	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 10	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 10	$15	+$8	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 10	$7	+$15	+198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 10	$7	+$28	+375%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 09	$52	−$3	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 09	$1	+$16	+1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 08	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET	Jun 08	$21	+$21	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 08	$2	−$1	-49%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$17	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Down	74¢	$34	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$22	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$35	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$41	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$1	8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records