Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xeda3…4e05 politics 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$25
politics 42% −$29
sports 9% +$57
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 155 +0.6% -9.0% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage133d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $337 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $334 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $315 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $289 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $887 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $306 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $310 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $342 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $313 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $271 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $350 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $272 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $300 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $312 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $633 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 32h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 36h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 47h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 47h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $324 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $324 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $334 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $334 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $344 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 463 history records