Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
ED 0xeda2…9b7b politics 21 markets active 3d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+5%) realized +$15 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$12
other 28% −$11
weather 17% +$2
tech 2% +$4
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 50% +12.3%
≤30d 4 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 50% +12.3%
≤90d 20 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 55% -3.1%
all 20 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 55% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 55% -3.1%
10% -26.9% 30% -12.4%
15% -34.0% 20% -20.8%
20% -40.5% 15% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage73d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 15¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $15 −$11 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 10? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 11? May 11 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 07 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 19 $11 +$2 +19%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 19 $7 +$1 +16%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qu Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $4 +$4 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 81¢ $13 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 95¢ $14 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 67¢ $10 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $5 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 34d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 34d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 11? BUY No 78¢ $25 36d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 10? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 10? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 38d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 39d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president SELL No 97¢ $47 39d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president BUY No 84¢ $41 51d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 57d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 25¢ $1 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? SELL No 83¢ $1 57d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 82¢ $1 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 84¢ $2 57d
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 57d
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 58d
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? SELL No 83¢ $7 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $9 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.36 (match) · 53 history records