Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed9e…6861 politics 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$458 (-11%) realized −$458 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate66%42W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$159
world 11% −$291
sports 3% −$23
crypto 1% $0
other 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 75% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -7.9% -16.7% 76% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 64 -3.1% -12.4% 66% 20% -19.4%
all 64 -3.1% -12.4% 66% 20% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 20% -19.4%
10% -20.7% 9% -27.1%
15% -28.4% 3% -34.2%
20% -35.4% 2% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses42 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage68d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +2%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe Biden" on Truth Social this week? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $295 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $258 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 21 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 19 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $27 +$4 +15%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 18 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? May 14 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $3 −$2 -51%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by May 31, 2026? May 13 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 12 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $1 +$5 +486%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? May 10 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? May 09 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Trump post "FBI" on Truth Social this week? May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 08 $14 −$3 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? May 07 $233 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? May 06 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? May 05 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 02 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $227 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $132 −$14 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $159 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 36m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 1h
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 45h
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 46h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $99 46h
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 16d
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 17d
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe Biden" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 17d
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 20d
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 21d
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 21d
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 21d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 22d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 22d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 22d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 22d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 24d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 26d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 27d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $101 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records