Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

ED 0xed9c…c08b crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$34 (-9%) realized −$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day18.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-34.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-27.4%	-34.4%	41%	36%	-22.3%
≤30d	22	-27.4%	-34.4%	41%	36%	-22.3%
≤90d	22	-27.4%	-34.4%	41%	36%	-22.3%
all	22	-27.4%	-34.4%	41%	36%	-22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.4%	36%	-22.3%
10%	-40.6%	27%	-29.8%
15%	-46.4%	27%	-36.5%
20%	-51.6%	27%	-42.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day18.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 20	$35	+$21	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 20	$16	−$15	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 20	$16	+$9	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 20	$49	−$33	-67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 20	$50	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$5	+21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$13	+$9	+70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	Jun 19	$23	+$21	+90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-96%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+18%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+137%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$5	$0	-0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$56	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$15	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$15	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$16	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	52¢	$15	3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Will Mo	BUY	20¢	$4	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$13	6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	BUY	52¢	$23	9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	64¢	$20	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	37h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records