Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed9a…f5ff crypto 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+7%) realized +$59 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%192W / 177L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$64
other 8% −$13
sports 6% −$3
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 300 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 50% -3.4%
≤90d 369 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 48% -5.0%
all 369 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 48% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 48% -5.0%
10% -23.0% 44% -14.1%
15% -30.5% 42% -22.4%
20% -37.3% 39% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses192 / 177
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 370
History coverage49d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 51¢ 76¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 614 history records