Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
ED 0xed97…a1c8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$348 (+117%) realized +$370 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +368% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +290% what you keep after slip
Net edge+290%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$381
other 27% −$19
crypto 14% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+323.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +367.6% +323.1% 75% 75% +263.0%
≤30d 4 +367.6% +323.1% 75% 75% +263.0%
≤90d 4 +367.6% +323.1% 75% 75% +263.0%
all 4 +367.6% +323.1% 75% 75% +263.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +323.1% 75% +263.0%
10% +282.6% 75% +228.3%
15% +245.6% 75% +196.6%
20% +211.7% 75% +167.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +301% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +368% · $-wt +301% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$42 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.17 per $1 lost it wins $9.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)4 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 +$224 +846%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 +$82 +313%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $19 +$78 +411%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.87 · official $152.87 (match) · 19 history records