Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed96…d73a politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
world 30% −$4
other 17% −$1
culture 6% $0
tech 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.3% -22.4% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage322d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 −$4 -11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 11 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Aug 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $1 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 04 $17 −$1 -3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 02 $1 $0 -11%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $18 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $13 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $22 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records