Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed95…889c
sports · 797 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$155 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$154 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$79
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses402 / 390
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)792 / 797
History coverage193d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 792 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$24
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 46¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ 58¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Heat (-8.5) Heat 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Magic (-14.5) Magic 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Timberwolves 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) 76ers 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Raptors 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Cavaliers 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 52¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 59¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Hornets 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Suns (-9.5) Pacers 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Thunder 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Hawks (-14.5) Hawks 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Heat (-5.5) Bucks 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Hawks (-15.5) Hawks 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Magic (-17.5) Magic 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals 50¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 59¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 +$3 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $11 +$8 +71%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $20 +$19 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $32 +$31 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $292 −$40 -14%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 +$6 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $10 +$9 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) May 13 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) May 13 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Magic (-13.5) May 13 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Hornets (-13.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Magic (-15.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Pistons (-19.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Hawks (-16.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Spread: Suns (-8.5) May 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) May 13 $19 −$9 -47%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) May 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Hawks (-12.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Spread: Magic (-16.5) May 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Spread: Raptors (-1.5) May 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 13 $5 +$6 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Spread: Lakers (-10.5) May 13 $14 +$6 +41%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Suns (-9.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Heat (-5.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-14.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-15.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Heat (-8.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Magic (-14.5) Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Magic (-17.5) Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) Mar 12 $14 −$4 -28%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Mar 12 $10 +$11 +110%
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$145
politics 4% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $9 10m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 25m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $7 45m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $7 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $13 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $2 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $3 4h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $15 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 57¢ $5 6h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $4 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $4 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $2 26h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $8 46h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $1 47h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $5 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 57¢ $1 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $5 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +26.6% +14.6% 70% 70% +7.1%
≤30d 12 +5.5% -4.5% 58% 58% -5.2%
≤90d 34 +38.9% +25.7% 79% 59% -41.8%
all 792 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 46% -11.2%
10% -18.4% 44% -19.7%
15% -26.3% 42% -27.5%
20% -33.5% 39% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.01 · official $79.02 (match) · 2817 history records