Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed94…f884 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+17%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
other 29% +$2
weather 19% $0
crypto 1% +$169
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.5%
all 26 +44.6% +30.8% 50% 4% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.8% 4% +6.1%
10% +18.3% 4% -4.1%
15% +6.9% 4% -13.4%
20% -3.6% 4% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.46 per $1 lost it wins $23.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage466d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $60 −$4 -6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $32 −$3 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $183 +$2 +1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 18 $15 +$169 +1163%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $26 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $5 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $22 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $30 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $32 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $29 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $29 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $29 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $29 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $21 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.15 · official $28.15 (match) · 82 history records