Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed92…5672 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+17%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$50
sports 32% +$24
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% +15.7%
≤30d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% +15.7%
≤90d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% +15.7%
all 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 40% +15.7%
10% -36.6% 40% +4.6%
15% -42.7% 40% -5.5%
20% -48.3% 10% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $73 +$29 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $41 +$18 +45%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$18 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records