Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed91…0c1f other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate76%31W / 10L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$3
world 26% +$3
other 21% $0
crypto 2% +$1
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.8% +49.1% 100% 100% +49.1%
≤30d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 60% +0.5%
≤90d 7 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 43% -6.0%
all 41 -0.0% -9.5% 76% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 17% -8.2%
10% -18.2% 15% -17.0%
15% -26.1% 10% -25.0%
20% -33.3% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Open positions15
Markets (closed)41 / 56
History coverage240d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 83¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $7 $0 +3%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +26%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 24 $116 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1AM ET Mar 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $3 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 -2%
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 01 $5 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $10 $0 +2%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 27 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $2 $0 +3%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $3 $0 +8%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on October 20? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Dec 18 $1 $0 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 18 $97 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 08 $1 $0 +6%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 08 $1 $0 +2%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 08 $1 $0 +6%
US bank failure by November 30? Dec 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Nov 17 $1 $0 +1%
US bank failure by October 31? Nov 17 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 20? Nov 17 $1 $0 +19%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Nov 17 $1 +$1 +72%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Nov 17 $1 +$1 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 13d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $12 13d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 13d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $5 13d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 13d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 13d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 28d
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $2 28d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $5 28d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $170 40d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $8 48d
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $5 48d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $5 48d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 48d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 75d
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 85d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 85d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $3 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.20 · official $261.20 (match) · 316 history records