Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed8f…3dbf crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-16%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$160
14 days−$384
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$212
sports 9% −$113
other 6% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -24.2% -31.4% 27% 26% -14.7%
≤30d 110 -29.4% -36.2% 25% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 110 -29.4% -36.2% 25% 25% -28.0%
all 110 -29.4% -36.2% 25% 25% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 25% -28.0%
10% -42.3% 25% -34.9%
15% -47.8% 25% -41.2%
20% -53.0% 23% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage222d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$46 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$99 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$29 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$22 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$12 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $1 $0 -41%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 19 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $58 −$34 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$19 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $152 −$71 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$61 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$66 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$46 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$96 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$30 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$37 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$49 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$18 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$35 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$9 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$12 +548%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records