Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed8e…0a51 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$115 (-30%) realized +$28 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$133
crypto 36% +$6
sports 13% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 60% -4.3%
≤30d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 60% -4.3%
≤90d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 60% -4.3%
all 5 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 60% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 60% -4.3%
10% -4.6% 60% -13.5%
15% -13.8% 60% -21.8%
20% -22.3% 40% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Under 55¢ 70¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 19¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $136 $3 −$133 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.05 · official $43.05 (match) · 17 history records