Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed8c…43c9 weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$581 (+33%) realized +$628 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$595
other 29% −$45
weather 28% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +134.0% +111.7% 100% 100% +111.7%
≤30d 1 +134.0% +111.7% 100% 100% +111.7%
≤90d 1 +134.0% +111.7% 100% 100% +111.7%
all 7 +20.6% +9.1% 71% 43% +50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 43% +50.3%
10% -1.3% 14% +36.0%
15% -10.9% 14% +22.8%
20% -19.6% 14% +10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +134% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$8 · ×16.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×41.76 per $1 lost it wins $41.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized+$628
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage111d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $404 $344 −$60 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $445 +$596 +134%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4? Mar 04 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 4? Mar 04 $100 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 4? Mar 04 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4? Mar 04 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3? Mar 04 $70 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 4? Mar 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.24 · official $757.24 · 31 history records