Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

ED 0xed87…8780 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$61 · open −$59

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-45.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.4%
≤30d	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.4%
≤90d	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.4%
all	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.5%	50%	-27.4%
10%	-50.7%	0%	-34.3%
15%	-55.5%	0%	-40.7%
20%	-59.9%	0%	-46.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$172

Realized+$61

Unrealized−$59

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage12d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	66¢	69¢	$70	$74	+$4 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$25	$31	+$6 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	13¢	$25	$28	+$3 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$30	$24	−$6 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$25	$15	−$10 (-40%)
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	49¢	0¢	$31	$0	−$31 (-100%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	No	46¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 19	$20	+$4	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	46¢	$26	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	7¢	$10	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	49¢	$31	1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$71	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$26	10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$26	10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	82¢	$20	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.80 · official $171.81 (match) · 21 history records