Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed87…0ba7 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,607 (-8%) realized −$4,279 · open −$328
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate82%62W / 14L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1,798
crypto 32% −$68
sports 29% −$5,924
politics 1% −$306
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤90d 2 -47.6% -52.6% 50% 0% -5.8%
all 76 -5.3% -14.3% 82% 11% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 11% -16.0%
10% -22.5% 5% -24.0%
15% -30.0% 4% -31.4%
20% -36.9% 4% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$644 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$2,604
Realized−$4,279
Unrealized−$328
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses62 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage712d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $160 $138 −$22 (-13%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ $420 $113 −$307 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,973 +$95 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Feb 08 $254 +$141 +56%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Feb 08 $174 −$174 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $580 −$580 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Jan 28 $4,911 −$4,911 -100%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 28 $1,941 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 28 $500 +$10 +2%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Jan 28 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jan 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $532 −$532 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Jan 07 $24 $0 +1%
Nava vs. Djere: Match O/U 21.5 Jan 07 $30 $0 +1%
Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 07 $30 $0 +1%
Popyrin vs. Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jan 07 $35 $0 +1%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jan 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5 Jan 07 $200 +$3 +2%
Brisbane International: Cameron Norrie vs Ugo Humbert Jan 07 $500 +$128 +26%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 07 $600 +$35 +6%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Valentin Royer Jan 07 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $1,411 +$38 +3%
Suns vs. Rockets Jan 07 $1,800 +$43 +2%
Nuggets vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline Jan 06 $100 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5 Jan 05 $400 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jan 05 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jan 05 $38 $0 +1%
Struff vs. Basavareddy: Match O/U 23.5 Jan 05 $64 +$1 +2%
Brisbane International: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Blinkova Jan 05 $300 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5 Jan 05 $323 +$4 +1%
Thunder vs. Suns Jan 05 $500 +$5 +1%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Nuno Borges Jan 05 $1,599 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $1,967 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $3,961 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 28? Dec 01 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Dec 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 28? Dec 01 $251 +$279 +111%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 28? Nov 28 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Dec 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $15-20b one day after launch? Oct 10 $5,260 +$140 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $371 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $12 61d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 118d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 118d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 54¢ $8 136d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 54¢ $100 136d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Nuggets 60¢ $174 136d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 52¢ $254 139d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic 29¢ $580 142d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 82¢ $2,595 146d
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $1,941 146d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 77¢ $2,316 146d
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $85 147d
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $1,857 147d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $1,998 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,603.83 · official $2,603.83 (match) · 410 history records