Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed85…be20 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$561 (-21%) realized −$559 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$544
14 days+$544
30 days+$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$682
other 8% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +96.1% +77.4% 50% 50% +56.4%
≤30d 30 +65.7% +49.9% 47% 47% +30.8%
≤90d 40 +34.4% +21.6% 40% 40% -27.5%
all 49 +26.7% +14.7% 39% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 39% -26.7%
10% +3.7% 39% -33.7%
15% -6.3% 39% -40.1%
20% -15.5% 37% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$61 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$559
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage484d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 +$102 +251%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$17 -81%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$22 -42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$75 +307%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$90 -89%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 +$75 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 +$76 +676%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$154 +410%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $55 +$45 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $36 −$8 -23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$73 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $22 +$28 +124%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $48 +$137 +283%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $67 −$66 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 21 $31 +$18 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $50 −$38 -75%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $82 +$118 +144%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $44 +$56 +129%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $117 −$111 -95%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 +$19 +122%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $701 −$701 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $20 +$15 +75%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Feb 06 $10 +$20 +200%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Cup? Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Nov 12 $68 +$32 +47%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 07 $121 −$85 -70%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $83 +$181 +218%
Warriors vs. Kings Nov 06 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Cup? Oct 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $26 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $8 53m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $99 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $44 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $21 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $26 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $15 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 21¢ $29 3h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 21h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $10 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over $11 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $51 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 38h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $104 47h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 88¢ $88 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $6 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $29 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 11¢ $11 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.14 · official $31.14 (match) · 179 history records