Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed81…6d1a crypto 1361 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+3%) realized +$190 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%722W / 724L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$80
14 days−$72
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -64.3% -67.7% 16% 15% -19.6%
≤30d 181 -52.1% -56.7% 20% 19% -23.7%
≤90d 1075 -11.3% -19.8% 44% 41% -9.7%
all 1446 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 43% -17.7%
15% -32.6% 37% -25.6%
20% -39.2% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses722 / 724
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1446 / 1361
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$3 -239%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$2 -192%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$6 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$5 -151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$4 -266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$3 -209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$2 -185%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -134%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$2 -160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $17 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $17 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $34 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.06 (match) · 3500 history records