Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed7f…285d crypto 251 markets active 7d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-6%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate34%86W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$57
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$194
finance 3% +$4
politics 2% +$9
world 1% −$4
other 1% +$1
economics 1% −$7
weather 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -59.8% -63.7% 25% 25% -23.8%
≤30d 182 -25.9% -33.0% 29% 16% -19.4%
≤90d 251 -20.4% -28.0% 34% 22% -18.5%
all 251 -20.4% -28.0% 34% 22% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 22% -18.5%
10% -34.9% 13% -26.3%
15% -41.2% 8% -33.5%
20% -47.0% 6% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses86 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage61d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $17 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 27 $13 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 27 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 27 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 27 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 27 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 27 $13 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1312 history records