Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed7f…582b
crypto · 152 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$140 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$151 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$186
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses81 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)147 / 152
History coverage144d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$46
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? No 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $151 +$25 +17%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $66 +$15 +24%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $30 +$6 +18%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 22 $100 +$45 +45%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 22 $152 +$40 +26%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $10 +$27 +263%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $210 +$16 +8%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $77 +$38 +49%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $57 +$25 +44%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Apr 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $49 −$23 -46%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Apr 27 $110 −$109 -99%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $67 −$38 -57%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $45 +$5 +10%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $50 −$20 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 15 Apr 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $157 −$7 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$5 -11%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $200 +$10 +5%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $43 +$14 +33%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 23 $10 +$1 +8%
FC København vs. Odense BK: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $10 −$8 -76%
Will FC København win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $49 +$26 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 22 $12 −$9 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 22 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 22 $45 −$37 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 22 $62 −$42 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 22 $33 +$11 +33%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 22 $39 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 22 $158 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 22 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 22 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 22 $12 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$139
tech 28% +$15
other 10% +$16
finance 1% −$5
world 1% −$38
sports 0% −$18
politics 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $30 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $30 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 64¢ $40 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $176 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 100¢ $81 13d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 100¢ $36 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 78¢ $15 20d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 21d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $5 21d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 81¢ $50 21d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $145 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 99¢ $192 21d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 84¢ $30 21d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $66 21d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 27¢ $10 30d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 33d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $152 42d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 97¢ $180 44d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $115 44d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $82 46d
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 46d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 46d
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 46d
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 48¢ $10 46d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +41.9% +28.4% 86% 86% +17.4%
≤90d 147 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 39% -12.0%
all 147 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 39% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 39% -12.0%
10% -22.8% 29% -20.5%
15% -30.3% 18% -28.1%
20% -37.1% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.69 · official $225.69 · 505 history records