Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

ED 0xed7d…7203 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$9 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate78%7W / 2L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$978per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$5,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+0.3%	-9.3%	78%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	9	+0.3%	-9.3%	78%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	9	+0.3%	-9.3%	78%	0%	-9.3%
all	9	+0.3%	-9.3%	78%	0%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.3%	0%	-9.3%
10%	-17.9%	0%	-17.9%
15% ← realistic here	-25.9%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-33.1%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$0 · ×1197.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4191.11 per $1 lost it wins $4191.11

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5,005

Realized+$9

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses7 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$978

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27?	No	100¢	100¢	$4,739	$4,732	−$7 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 27?	No	100¢	98¢	$164	$161	−$4 (-2%)
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 27?	No	100¢	98¢	$115	$112	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27?	Jun 27	$32	$0	+1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 27?	Jun 27	$17	$0	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27?	Jun 27	$3,091	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 27?	Jun 27	$149	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27?	Jun 27	$1,714	+$10	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27?	Jun 27	$1,611	+$3	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 27?	Jun 27	$14	$0	-0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 27?	Jun 27	$20	$0	-0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 27?	Jun 27	$66	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$4,740	1h
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$164	1h
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$115	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,020	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27?	BUY Yes	99¢	$594	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27?	SELL No	100¢	$1,613	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27?	BUY Yes	99¢	$101	1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 27?	SELL No	100¢	$14	1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 27?	SELL No	100¢	$20	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 27?	SELL No	100¢	$67	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$949	2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$661	2h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$100	5h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$14	5h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$20	5h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$50	5h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27?	BUY No	99¢	$32	5h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,994	5h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$97	5h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$17	5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 27?	BUY No	100¢	$66	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,005.08 · official $5,002.70 (match) · 26 history records