Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
ED 0xed7d…5852 sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,588 (+25%) realized +$3,024 · open −$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%78W / 115L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$262
14 days+$16
30 days+$673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$2,764
other 23% −$554
crypto 15% −$294
tech 3% +$125
politics 2% −$13
culture 1% +$7
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -53.3% -57.8% 18% 15% -16.3%
≤30d 103 -43.0% -48.5% 21% 18% +5.7%
≤90d 105 -41.0% -46.6% 23% 20% +6.2%
all 193 -5.3% -14.4% 40% 36% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 36% +16.8%
10% -22.6% 34% +5.6%
15% -30.0% 31% -4.6%
20% -36.9% 25% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$25 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$1,604
Realized+$3,024
Unrealized−$436
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses78 / 115
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions4
Markets (closed)193 / 197
History coverage191d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 76¢ 93¢ $770 $943 +$173 (+22%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 72¢ 38¢ $1,235 $641 −$594 (-48%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +311%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $31 +$100 +327%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $180 +$605 +336%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Bills (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Jazz Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $80 −$35 -43%
Spread: Seahawks (-14.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Panthers (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$19 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 77¢ $708 1h
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 1h
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 6h
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 35¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 64¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $20 2d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 19¢ $5 2d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 18¢ $18 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 19¢ $20 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 24¢ $20 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 21¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 27¢ $15 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $6 2d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 66¢ $153 2d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 13¢ $5 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ $0 3d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $10 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ $1 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 12¢ $5 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 16¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,603.89 · official $1,603.89 (match) · 666 history records