Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed7b…dc73 weather 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$370 (+4%) realized +$628 · open −$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate72%39W / 15L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$193
14 days+$227
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% +$248
finance 19% +$27
world 10% −$178
sports 9% +$261
other 7% −$367
economics 7% +$2
crypto 3% −$3
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 29% -3.6%
≤30d 19 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 26% -3.6%
≤90d 47 -1.9% -11.2% 74% 23% -6.5%
all 54 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 20% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 20% -6.9%
10% -20.8% 11% -15.8%
15% -28.5% 9% -23.9%
20% -35.5% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized+$628
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses39 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage107d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $903 $946 +$44 (+5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 70¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $152 −$46 -30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 −$29 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 −$13 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $491 +$19 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $182 −$143 -79%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $260 +$135 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $248 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $255 −$13 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $155 −$40 -26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $171 +$129 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $300 +$100 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $201 −$116 -57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $368 +$368 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 09 $199 +$4 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23? Apr 28 $43 +$3 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 22 $181 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 9? Apr 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on April 9 Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on April 8 Apr 09 $18 +$2 +9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $194 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 6? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 03 $25 +$3 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $250 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26? Mar 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 26? Mar 27 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 26 $99 −$46 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $137 +$6 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 23 $2,404 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? Mar 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $93 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $0 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $22 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $212 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $151 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $551 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $257 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $496 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $182 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $257 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $252 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.75 · official $946.75 (match) · 279 history records