Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed74…eb6c other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$16
politics 36% −$15
sports 6% −$70
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -3.8% -12.9% 4% 2% -9.8%
all 116 -4.2% -13.3% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage115d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $382 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $441 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $256 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 25h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 33h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 33h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $171 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $171 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $231 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $244 26d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $226 26d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $226 26d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $211 26d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $211 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $211 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 31d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $232 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $32.99 (match) · 349 history records