Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed74…7ce7
other · 129 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$120 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$120 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage94d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$63
14 days−$76
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White S Jun 12 $54 −$52 -97%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -3%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $63 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $264 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $113 −$2 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $51 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $742 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 02 $69 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $253 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 27 $49 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$34
politics 22% −$12
sports 17% −$65
crypto 10% −$1
culture 7% −$1
economics 4% −$2
finance 3% −$8
world 3% −$2
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 43m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 6h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 6h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $51 6h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $52 10h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White S SELL No 3¢ $2 11h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White S BUY No 96¢ $54 15h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 16h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $49 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $18 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $18 29h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 30h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 37h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $61 38h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $43 41h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $18 42h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 42h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $62 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $63 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $56 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $57 5d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 61 -2.4% -11.7% 3% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 123 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 128 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.92 · official $56.95 (match) · 443 history records