Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed74…1053 crypto 38 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$66
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$5
crypto 13% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.0% -14.0% 33% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 38 -29.6% -36.3% 24% 18% -11.5%
≤90d 38 -29.6% -36.3% 24% 18% -11.5%
all 38 -29.6% -36.3% 24% 18% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 18% -11.5%
10% -42.4% 16% -19.9%
15% -48.0% 11% -27.7%
20% -53.1% 8% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage20d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $18 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $150 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$2 -21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $2,080 −$4 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $559 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records