Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed71…a320 crypto 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-7%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%260W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$144
14 days−$3
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$270
sports 11% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 47% +9.0%
≤30d 585 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 44% -16.4%
≤90d 585 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 44% -16.4%
all 585 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 44% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 44% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -24.4%
15% -28.8% 44% -31.7%
20% -35.8% 44% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses260 / 325
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)585 / 585
History coverage24d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 585 Trades
no open positions (316 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$12 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1240 history records