Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

ED 0xed6a…54f9 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$18 (-13%) realized −$18 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+33.9%	+21.1%	67%	67%	+18.4%
≤30d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-4.8%
≤90d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-4.8%
all	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	50%	-4.8%
10%	-17.8%	50%	-13.9%
15%	-25.8%	50%	-22.2%
20%	-33.1%	25%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.12 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$18

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage23d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 17	$25	−$23	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$10	+38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$23	+$36	+154%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 25	$18	−$18	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN	BUY	39¢	$46	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Up	9¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$26	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	39¢	$23	20h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	42¢	$18	22d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $45.00 · 8 history records