Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed6a…626b
crypto · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$276 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$288 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$297
14 days−$297
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 66¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $346 −$274 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 25 $115 +$17 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 18 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$2 -36%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$1 -22%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 72% −$265
crypto 20% −$7
world 4% −$1
other 2% −$14
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 7m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 43% -70.3%
≤30d 21 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 43% -70.3%
≤90d 64 -11.9% -20.3% 52% 33% -47.9%
all 64 -11.9% -20.3% 52% 33% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 33% -47.9%
10% -27.9% 12% -52.9%
15% -34.9% 5% -57.5%
20% -41.3% 3% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.44 (match) · 214 history records